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Predictive model of demographic processes
An agent-based dynamic model of the demographic processes of the Far East based on Big Data which assesses the effectiveness of the state demographic policy, forms «E-Demography» and monitors the reproduction and spatial distribution of the population
Advantages:
- Accounting of the demand of settlements
- Accounting of the supply and price of suppliers
- Discovering of all possible routes
- Calculation of loading of warehouses and transport
- Estimation of cost and delivery time
- Selection of the best route
- Discovering of all possible routes
- Calculation of loading of warehouses and transport
- Estimation of cost and delivery time
- Selection of the best route
8,2 million agents
5 life trajectories
>30 controlled parameters
>30 agents' characteristics
>50 output indicators
>700 thousand units of data
230 municipal districts
The demographic model ensures the transparency of socio-demographic processes at the micro (resident, household) and macro levels (region) and helps the state and businesses to:
- create evidence-based approaches and obtain up-to-date statistical information for modelling demographic processes at the level of the Far Eastern Federal District, regions and municipalities on a 1:1 scale;
- obtain detailed information on the socio-economic and demographic situation on a wide range of indicators in the context of average families / households and population groups;
- analyze changes in the population structure, migration, education level, birth rate, employment, income level and other aspects of people's lives;
- model various scenarios, forecast the development of society, taking into account the peculiarities of the development of territories, powers of various authorities, research requests from users;
- assess the impact of social support measures and business-related projects on the socio-demographic development of territories;
- analyze sufficiency of the social infrastructure for the population;
- evaluate labor resources, the reproductive potential of the region; people's satisfaction with the quality of life;
- identify and analyze target audiences for the implementation of socio-demographic policy and the development of business-related projects.
The agent-based demographic model is a digital basis for analyzing and forecasting the social development of the Far East.