Predictive model of demographic processes

Government bodies
Business
People of the region

An agent-based dynamic model of the demographic processes of the Far East based on Big Data which assesses the effectiveness of the state demographic policy, forms «E-Demography» and monitors the reproduction and spatial distribution of the population

Advantages:

  1. Accounting of the demand of settlements
  2. Accounting of the supply and price of suppliers
  3. Discovering of all possible routes
  4. Calculation of loading of warehouses and transport
  5. Estimation of cost and delivery time
  6. Selection of the best route
  7. Discovering of all possible routes
  8. Calculation of loading of warehouses and transport
  9. Estimation of cost and delivery time
  10. Selection of the best route
8,2 million agents
5 life trajectories
>30 controlled parameters
>30 agents' characteristics
>50 output indicators
>700 thousand units of data
230 municipal districts

The demographic model ensures the transparency of socio-demographic processes at the micro (resident, household) and macro levels (region) and helps the state and businesses to:

  • create evidence-based approaches and obtain up-to-date statistical information for modelling demographic processes at the level of the Far Eastern Federal District, regions and municipalities on a 1:1 scale;
  • obtain detailed information on the socio-economic and demographic situation on a wide range of indicators in the context of average families / households and population groups;
  • analyze changes in the population structure, migration, education level, birth rate, employment, income level and other aspects of people's lives; 
  • model various scenarios, forecast the development of society, taking into account the peculiarities of the development of territories, powers of various authorities, research requests from users; 
  • assess the impact of social support measures and business-related projects on the socio-demographic development of territories;
  • analyze sufficiency of the social infrastructure for the population;
  • evaluate labor resources, the reproductive potential of the region; people's satisfaction with the quality of life;
  • identify and analyze target audiences for the implementation of socio-demographic policy and the development of business-related projects. 

The agent-based demographic model is a digital basis for analyzing and forecasting the social development of the Far East.

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